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Prediction for CME (2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-07T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33829/-1
CME Note: Wide, bright CME seen to the southwest in SOHO C2/C3 seemingly composed of two or more overlapping loops with internal structure clearly visible and no cavity. Presence of very faint shock may possibly be seen due south in LASCO C2 running difference imagery and may begin to reveal itself to the north-northeast in late SOHO frames after 22:30Z, though disjoint from the main CME body. Associated with a sympathetic eruption resulting from the long duration X2.1/X1.0-class flares (AR3842) located farther behind the southwestern limb than where the X2.1 takes place (W60) as seen in SDO 171 imagery; the CME appears to originate closer to the southwestern limb. Fast, widely opening field lines are also observed in GOES SUVI 284.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-11T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41009
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Oct 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) 
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2024  10CM FLUX: 225 / AP: 016 
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Oct 2024  10CM FLUX: 223 / AP: 070 
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Oct 2024  10CM FLUX: 221 / AP: 042

Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) detected around 20:30 UTC on October 07 suggests the possibility of a glancing blow arrival at Earth early on October 11.
Further analysis of the CME detected around 05:40 UTC on October 08, associated with a large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant, suggests no impact on Earth.

Lead Time: 48.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-10-09T08:40Z

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